This decade has been quite fascinating to say the least. It ended with a recession at its tail quite similar to the way it had started off with. The IT bubble gave way to the real estate bubble both of which burst with equal tenacity leaving the taxpayer at the mercy of the Capitalist system. As these huge financial institutions gambled away the savings of the common man, the brunt of the losses was borne by the hapless tax payer who was left in a lose-lose situation .The cherry on the other hand was taken by the few who actually recklessly gambled away the savings of the many who diligently paid their dues to society. An insight into these financial crises gives us an understanding of what happened, how it happened and why it happened as these are a critical part of stabilizing the financial system in the long run.
The learnings from these crises are one too many but the biggest of all has been that of the importance of regulation in our financial markets. Without adequate regulation markets become susceptible to manipulation and lose their self correction mechanisms. The invisible hand remains invariably invisible.
As in the case of the recent Global financial crisis the “invincible” sector – Real Estate also revealed the mess that was underneath the massive housing market. Right from the late 1990’s to the mid 2000’s housing prices in US rose at a CAGR of 8%. The expansionary monetary policy followed by the Clinton administration led to extremely low lending rates due to which more and more people were able to afford houses thus leading to growth in the economy in general.
But this growth was temporary as the housing bubble burst sending a ripple effect throughout the financial system. Default on mortgages and foreclosures became commonplace, thus leading to a credit crunch for the banks that had lent out these subprime loans. Soon these banks went insolvent which triggered the downward spiral that engulfed the entire global financial system. Globalization of these toxic assets made this the local problem global. Thus an understanding of complex financial products requires great expertise and judgment.
During the first half of this decade American-style consumption offered a new model of economic development. The world revolved around American consumerism. During the recession the savings rate of the debt ridden economies shot up due to reduction in disposable income of these economies. This led to a further deepening of the crises while revealing the massive overcapacity of the US retail market. So while the last decade was an age of Consumerism the next one is sure to be one of the Service Economy which would emphasize human interaction more than individualistic consumption.
Another learning from these difficult times has been the impact of labour and financial markets on the economy. The inefficiencies of the labour markets lead to escalated costs on society. On the other hand capital market failures strongly affect the labour markets. The recent global recession has left the United States with approximately 8 million jobless while the global unemployment levels have reached to around 220 million. Such weakness in the job market takes a huge toll on economic and personal well-being.
We also know that not all innovation leads to a more efficient and productive economy. Financial engineering did not create products that would help ordinary citizens manage the simple risk of home ownership. Instead, innovation was directed at perfecting the exploitation of those who are less educated, and at circumventing the regulations and accounting standards that were designed to make markets more efficient and stable. As a result, financial markets, which are supposed to manage risk and allocate capital efficiently, created risk and misallocated wildly. Thus to check the excessive leverage of the last decade, stiffer capital adequacy norms need to be put in place.
In the current crisis, China, India, and certain other emerging-market countries are coping fairly well. These countries all had strong external balance sheets and ample room for fiscal maneuver before the crisis, which allowed them to apply countercyclical policies to combat external shocks. They have also nurtured industries in line with their comparative advantage, which has helped them weather the storm. In today’s competitive global marketplace, countries need to upgrade and diversify their industries continuously according to their changing environments. The focus now should be on establishing well-functioning markets that enable developing countries to fully tap their economies’ comparative advantage.
With the advent of globalization, integration and synchronization of the business cycles across the world has become a common fact. It has its pros as well as its cons. Increased financial integration can lead to a positive effect on the exports of neighbouring countries through inter-linkages between monetary policies of these nations. On the other hand we can also have demand shocks in one country severely affecting the output of another. As was the case when the demand in US declined it affected the exports of India and as well as China immensely. The developing economies need to build up their own demand levels and reduce the burden on exports to mitigate the impact of such crisis on their growing economies. Decoupling of major economies is not a viable option as the self-sustained growth can only be possible after decades of superlative growth.
All in all this decade has proven to be one of great hurdles which have taught us important lessons about the role of greed and fear in the markets. We need to take our learnings forward and make sure that the next decade can handle all the impediments that come across its path.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Monday, January 25, 2010
Economic Renaissance should take precedence over ecological imbalance
The recent financial crisis has put the great economies of the world under immense pressure to rebuild and restructure their financial structures. It demands a comprehensive strategy from all the major countries to restore the growth momentum of the earlier decade. At this stage of the economic cycle the emphasis should only be on kick starting an economic renaissance. Entangling ourselves in the hue and cry over environmental sustainability will only inhibit our efforts in restoring the economy.
We have almost half the world living at less than $2.5 a day. The main concern of these 3 billion people is food security and that can only be attained through economic growth. For poor countries ecological impact takes a back seat as human survival becomes a priority. Even for the developing countries maintaining their growth momentum involves building on their competitiveness which can be marred by environmental constraints. The pioneer in the field of sustainable development should be the rich developed countries which have the necessary resources and technological expertise to explore renewable energy resources and to utilize them efficiently. But sadly even the US, the largest economy in the world, has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol even though it is the largest contributor of greenhouse gases in the world.
We should understand that the topic here talks about giving precedence to growth aspects of the economy and is not concerned with underpinning the environmental sustainability. Both these aspects need to be considered while chalking out a successful business model. The government also needs to be proactive in its approach towards sustaining the environment. Any company which is losing out on its competitiveness due to environmental friendly policies should be provided with the required stimulus to sustain its eco friendly outlook. Giving precedence to environmental aspects without understanding the financial implications of the same can be catastrophic for any business.
The main concern of the environmentalists should not be to stall the growth process rather it should be to develop sustainable energy resources for the future generations. The focus should be on developing cost effective solutions which are competitive in the free market and do not require any subsidies for implementation. They should work towards making global energy supply more efficient while reducing consumer demand for polluting goods and promoting cleaner energy and transport technology.
Be it Kyoto or Copenhagen, there has never been a reconciliation between ecological concerns and economic growth. The current economic scenario is not potent enough to stand any further ecological restrictions. Any attempts to do so might prove to be catastrophic.
We have almost half the world living at less than $2.5 a day. The main concern of these 3 billion people is food security and that can only be attained through economic growth. For poor countries ecological impact takes a back seat as human survival becomes a priority. Even for the developing countries maintaining their growth momentum involves building on their competitiveness which can be marred by environmental constraints. The pioneer in the field of sustainable development should be the rich developed countries which have the necessary resources and technological expertise to explore renewable energy resources and to utilize them efficiently. But sadly even the US, the largest economy in the world, has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol even though it is the largest contributor of greenhouse gases in the world.
We should understand that the topic here talks about giving precedence to growth aspects of the economy and is not concerned with underpinning the environmental sustainability. Both these aspects need to be considered while chalking out a successful business model. The government also needs to be proactive in its approach towards sustaining the environment. Any company which is losing out on its competitiveness due to environmental friendly policies should be provided with the required stimulus to sustain its eco friendly outlook. Giving precedence to environmental aspects without understanding the financial implications of the same can be catastrophic for any business.
The main concern of the environmentalists should not be to stall the growth process rather it should be to develop sustainable energy resources for the future generations. The focus should be on developing cost effective solutions which are competitive in the free market and do not require any subsidies for implementation. They should work towards making global energy supply more efficient while reducing consumer demand for polluting goods and promoting cleaner energy and transport technology.
Be it Kyoto or Copenhagen, there has never been a reconciliation between ecological concerns and economic growth. The current economic scenario is not potent enough to stand any further ecological restrictions. Any attempts to do so might prove to be catastrophic.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Markets and morality don't go hand in or do they??
A market is an all-encompassing socioeconomic system, covering economic institutions, social relations and culture. In this context let us take a more streamlined definition of the market as the rules that coordinate economic activities.
This idea emanates from a Socialistic viewpoint that markets are inherently corrupt and that morals can’t coexist within such a system. As we all know recently, free market capitalism has faced a lot of slack on the premise that greed fostered the subprime crisis and that all capitalists are immoral by nature. Capitalism naysayers have pounced on the bandwagon of Global recession to trounce the fundamental idea behind a Capitalistic society and have started to falsely believe that this downturn shall lead to the eventual death of the prancing horses. These proponents of Socialism should remember that this glitch will only be a learning experience and that the Bull Run shall continue with a more resilient system behind it.
There’s a popular saying that those who live in glass houses should not throw stones at others. Ideologically driven socialistic societies have suffered from stagnated economic performance, a withering civil society and hence a corroded moral character.
On the other hand, the idea behind free market capitalism is that it tends to increase the overall pie hence allowing a much larger number of people to be better off. We need to understand that Moral judgments about particular socio economic activities are different from moral judgments about the rules of the market. The markets flaws stem from the actions and motivations of its participants rather than from its design. Free markets foster free societies which afford people the opportunity to make their own political and social systems more just. Thus in contrast these activities support rather than corrode morality.
For example, In Europe, the integration of former Soviet bloc countries into the continent’s free-market trading system did not have any negative moral consequences. But in China, one can easily find evidence of a decline in both the moral order and business ethics.
Who says markets and morality can’t go hand in hand. We have Infosys which has been the epitome of fairness in all business dealings. The value system envisioned by its founders has been able to keep the company highly competitive in its business while maintaining the virtues of trust and honesty.
There’s nothing inherently evil about profit. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is based on the idea of doing good while making profits. Google’s charitable wing, Google.org, is also designed as a for profit enterprise. We all know of Grameen Bank which was established with the sole motive of providing credit facilities to poor. Currently it has 7 million borrowers + with US $ 175 million in revenue. A perfect example of an enterprise set up with a social cause and one that is able to sustain itself in a highly competitive business environment.
My opponents will argue that markets are an evil place where the rule breakers are the kings. I would like to tell them that the market place is a great leveler; all your misdeeds will come to haunt you sooner or later. Be it Satyam or Enron, everyone will suffer from consequences of their deeds. Any and every immoral act shall be punished by the system.
In the end I’d like to conclude saying that the greatest empires have been built on the foundations of morality and have collapsed due to the lack of it.
With that I rest my case.
This idea emanates from a Socialistic viewpoint that markets are inherently corrupt and that morals can’t coexist within such a system. As we all know recently, free market capitalism has faced a lot of slack on the premise that greed fostered the subprime crisis and that all capitalists are immoral by nature. Capitalism naysayers have pounced on the bandwagon of Global recession to trounce the fundamental idea behind a Capitalistic society and have started to falsely believe that this downturn shall lead to the eventual death of the prancing horses. These proponents of Socialism should remember that this glitch will only be a learning experience and that the Bull Run shall continue with a more resilient system behind it.
There’s a popular saying that those who live in glass houses should not throw stones at others. Ideologically driven socialistic societies have suffered from stagnated economic performance, a withering civil society and hence a corroded moral character.
On the other hand, the idea behind free market capitalism is that it tends to increase the overall pie hence allowing a much larger number of people to be better off. We need to understand that Moral judgments about particular socio economic activities are different from moral judgments about the rules of the market. The markets flaws stem from the actions and motivations of its participants rather than from its design. Free markets foster free societies which afford people the opportunity to make their own political and social systems more just. Thus in contrast these activities support rather than corrode morality.
For example, In Europe, the integration of former Soviet bloc countries into the continent’s free-market trading system did not have any negative moral consequences. But in China, one can easily find evidence of a decline in both the moral order and business ethics.
Who says markets and morality can’t go hand in hand. We have Infosys which has been the epitome of fairness in all business dealings. The value system envisioned by its founders has been able to keep the company highly competitive in its business while maintaining the virtues of trust and honesty.
There’s nothing inherently evil about profit. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is based on the idea of doing good while making profits. Google’s charitable wing, Google.org, is also designed as a for profit enterprise. We all know of Grameen Bank which was established with the sole motive of providing credit facilities to poor. Currently it has 7 million borrowers + with US $ 175 million in revenue. A perfect example of an enterprise set up with a social cause and one that is able to sustain itself in a highly competitive business environment.
My opponents will argue that markets are an evil place where the rule breakers are the kings. I would like to tell them that the market place is a great leveler; all your misdeeds will come to haunt you sooner or later. Be it Satyam or Enron, everyone will suffer from consequences of their deeds. Any and every immoral act shall be punished by the system.
In the end I’d like to conclude saying that the greatest empires have been built on the foundations of morality and have collapsed due to the lack of it.
With that I rest my case.
Monday, November 2, 2009
The business of business is only business
This theme emanates from an age long debate over the outlook of a business organization and the key driving forces behind its makers. The standard definition of Business is that it is an organization aimed at providing goods and services to consumers. The modern day business has a far greater role to play than just providing goods and services. A sustainable business model needs to look into the desirability of the product, the after sales service and the customer engagement model being employed. We have seen a paradigm shift in the way businesses view customers not only catering to their preferences but also building a rapport with the consumers.
In the legendary JRD Tata’s words “No success in material terms is worthwhile unless it serves the needs or interests of the country and its people”. A CSR initiative is indeed required to build a symbiotic relation between the corporate and the society. A business is a part of society and is not independent from it and it aims to do so by indulging with the people it does business with.
Profit making should not be the only driver for a business. The sole purpose of business today has been revamped from a money making outlook to that of being a solution provider. Irrespective of the scale of the organization, a businessman needs to understand the implications of his business from a macro as well as a micro perspective. Looking at it through the tinted glasses of money will only result in a skewed vision.
The mindset that we have to run a business to make money is highly controversial as this has resulted in businesses overstretching their workers and undermining the right to a healthy life for an individual. We all know of the highly overstressed workers of today with late working hours and little job satisfaction. All these symptoms are due to a not so rare disease called ‘Greed’. Businesses need to cater to the needs of not only their customers but also their employees as well.
Looking at this from a macro economic perspective, the government also needs to intervene into the running of a business if it finds that the greater good is being sacrificed for a profit. An optimally regulated business environment has the assurance of a fatherly figure overlooking our business but it also is conducive for economic growth. The downfall of the western markets led by the collapse of the Investment banks has been a great lesson for all those preaching the completely free market ideology .The sole reason for the collapse of these ‘invincible’ financial institutions was GREED. This happened because the business of these businesses was only business.
We talk of letting our businesses grow unrestricted leading to the greater good with lower unemployment rate, higher GDP growth etc. What we must realize is that we will be faced with challenges of an ever increasing population in a highly corrupted environment .Case in point: Satyam. So are we ready to cradle the scion of free markets? Some food for thought for our policy makers surely.
In the legendary JRD Tata’s words “No success in material terms is worthwhile unless it serves the needs or interests of the country and its people”. A CSR initiative is indeed required to build a symbiotic relation between the corporate and the society. A business is a part of society and is not independent from it and it aims to do so by indulging with the people it does business with.
Profit making should not be the only driver for a business. The sole purpose of business today has been revamped from a money making outlook to that of being a solution provider. Irrespective of the scale of the organization, a businessman needs to understand the implications of his business from a macro as well as a micro perspective. Looking at it through the tinted glasses of money will only result in a skewed vision.
The mindset that we have to run a business to make money is highly controversial as this has resulted in businesses overstretching their workers and undermining the right to a healthy life for an individual. We all know of the highly overstressed workers of today with late working hours and little job satisfaction. All these symptoms are due to a not so rare disease called ‘Greed’. Businesses need to cater to the needs of not only their customers but also their employees as well.
Looking at this from a macro economic perspective, the government also needs to intervene into the running of a business if it finds that the greater good is being sacrificed for a profit. An optimally regulated business environment has the assurance of a fatherly figure overlooking our business but it also is conducive for economic growth. The downfall of the western markets led by the collapse of the Investment banks has been a great lesson for all those preaching the completely free market ideology .The sole reason for the collapse of these ‘invincible’ financial institutions was GREED. This happened because the business of these businesses was only business.
We talk of letting our businesses grow unrestricted leading to the greater good with lower unemployment rate, higher GDP growth etc. What we must realize is that we will be faced with challenges of an ever increasing population in a highly corrupted environment .Case in point: Satyam. So are we ready to cradle the scion of free markets? Some food for thought for our policy makers surely.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
My बियो Data
My Info
Name : Chaman Bahar ( urf Maut Kit Thook)
Residential Address : Room No. 420,Kambakht Khatmal Bldg,Sher ke Angaare Colony,Near Chun Mun Medical Store,Gandi Gali,Rang Raliya Maidan
Telephone : Nahi Hai
Mobile : Yeh Kaise hoga be
Email : khoonbharimaang@thook.com
Date Of Birth : Main Samay Hoon
Sun Sign : Dalda
Blood Group: Lal
Height : Good
Weight:Satisfactory
My Favorite Teacher : Prof. Ram Bharose
My Favorite Friend : Gulgule Ki Maa, Chhail Chabili
My Favorite Subject : Faaltu ki Bateein
My Favorite Picnic Spot: Sulabh Shauchalaya
My Favorite Food : Khoon ki ulti with Gas ka Churan
My Favorite Sports Player: 1.Jaalim Haggu
2. Jammal Gota
My Favorite Film Star : Dardnak Fart
Friday, July 3, 2009
Brave Fart Saves the Day
As I entered the NITIE campus on 17th June, 2009, I was a mixed bag of emotions. There was a constant conflict in my mind regarding the choice of NITIE over IIT and along with the apprehension as to what if this turned out to be the wrong decision. Amongst this entire conundrum I stepped into the sylvan campus and was astounded by the noiselessness here. Considering Mumbai this campus turned out to be a huge relief. The hustle bustle capital of the country had a serene location hidden away in alleys of Powai. I reached the Hostel room allocation centre and was escorted to my room by my to be roommate (the eventual Floor Captain).Gripped by the Delhi V/s Mumbai debate, I tried to free myself away from it by mixing about with the crowd and enquiring about their profiles and other converts that they had forgone to come to NITIE. I was anxiously waiting to meet an IIM convert who had left IIM for NITIE (which by the way was the case with the senior batch). But alas all my attempts to satisfy myself that all was well were not being helped even a single bit by the constant comparisons between IIT and NITIE and varied responses from people. I seriously contemplated taking back my decision and returning to the comforts of home and being amongst my family members. All this was getting a bit too much for me so I decided to sleep on it
The next day was supposed to be our Induction day but started off with some academic formalities. Later the same day we were called in by Team IMPACT to meet up at 6pm.The Induction event started off with a few introductions and a bit of boring stuff. This was pissing as I was already confused and these people were not helping. This continued till dinner after which the real fun started. It was past 12 and sitting on the ground for around 6 hrs was nowhere in my idea of a B-School. After what I considered to be a boring and uneventful day, I was in for a shock as we were handed out case studies on a Marketing Strategy for a company. We were to submit this by 7 am. I slept for around 3 hrs that day and had no time to think over my doubt at all. A new start awaited me there of which I was yet unaware of.
The next day started at 7.30 with a campus tour and a skit competition arranged by the Professors. The evening was supposed to be again about the same thing “Know your batch mates”. All this seemed a bit boring and I was not at all in the mood to go out there and have my head torn apart by silly performances. At 1800 hrs or so (in Mayank’s parlance) we came to know that we were to do some skits again, but this time they came with a slight twist. We were handed out our chits and as my group representative brought along our groups topic an astonished look took over the entire group. We were supposed to enact “BraveFart”. As everyone struggled with the idea, I had an incessant smile on my face. This was the area where in my domain expertise came into the picture. I reveled in such nonsensical stuff. I found another like-minded guy in Anant and together we created magic. The jokes were hilarious; the fart noises I made were almost surreal and all that Andaz Apna Apna style fighting (the one between Salman Khan and Crime Master Gogo at the end) brought tears to some people’s eyes. The whole skit turned out to be a class act and brought me instant fame (now I can understand the charm of Bollywood). It was the entire setting, the group and the penchant for absurdity that made this entire skit possible. And all of a sudden in one swift stroke I was a part of NITIE. All apprehensions went away and I knew this is where I belong, a kind of Home away from Home. So this blog is dedicated to the latest superhero who saved the day and farted his way to stardom.
The next day was supposed to be our Induction day but started off with some academic formalities. Later the same day we were called in by Team IMPACT to meet up at 6pm.The Induction event started off with a few introductions and a bit of boring stuff. This was pissing as I was already confused and these people were not helping. This continued till dinner after which the real fun started. It was past 12 and sitting on the ground for around 6 hrs was nowhere in my idea of a B-School. After what I considered to be a boring and uneventful day, I was in for a shock as we were handed out case studies on a Marketing Strategy for a company. We were to submit this by 7 am. I slept for around 3 hrs that day and had no time to think over my doubt at all. A new start awaited me there of which I was yet unaware of.
The next day started at 7.30 with a campus tour and a skit competition arranged by the Professors. The evening was supposed to be again about the same thing “Know your batch mates”. All this seemed a bit boring and I was not at all in the mood to go out there and have my head torn apart by silly performances. At 1800 hrs or so (in Mayank’s parlance) we came to know that we were to do some skits again, but this time they came with a slight twist. We were handed out our chits and as my group representative brought along our groups topic an astonished look took over the entire group. We were supposed to enact “BraveFart”. As everyone struggled with the idea, I had an incessant smile on my face. This was the area where in my domain expertise came into the picture. I reveled in such nonsensical stuff. I found another like-minded guy in Anant and together we created magic. The jokes were hilarious; the fart noises I made were almost surreal and all that Andaz Apna Apna style fighting (the one between Salman Khan and Crime Master Gogo at the end) brought tears to some people’s eyes. The whole skit turned out to be a class act and brought me instant fame (now I can understand the charm of Bollywood). It was the entire setting, the group and the penchant for absurdity that made this entire skit possible. And all of a sudden in one swift stroke I was a part of NITIE. All apprehensions went away and I knew this is where I belong, a kind of Home away from Home. So this blog is dedicated to the latest superhero who saved the day and farted his way to stardom.
Sunday, June 7, 2009
Youngistaan Rocks Or Does it??
Amidst the 15th Lok Sabha elections that were concluded recently resulting in a strong mandate for the Congress Party and its allies, a prominent position was taken up by the youth in this election. This election was supposed to bring about an upheaval in the political system with identity politics taking a back seat and progressive governance being given a push in the right direction. This was supposed to be the election where the youth takes charge and starts taking up some responsibility for this country. With the immense amount of TV coverage given for the largest democratic exercise in the whole world and the innumerable voting campaigns started to raise awareness amongst the electorate there was a feeling that maybe ,just maybe we might be moving in the right direction. The first time voters were supposed to influence some constituencies of the urban localities by giving their verdict in favour of performance rather than sitting at home and chilling coz it’s a holiday today. But alas all these hopes and wishes were washed away. Not only did Youngistaan turn out to be the useless “Pappu”, it was also caught sleeping soundly in spite of Jaago Re being such a useful tool for almost everyone.
So why did pappu not go out and vote. With excuses such as excessive heat being labeled as possible reasons for the same, it seems to me that all that talk and no play makes Youngistaan a damp squib. With the abysmally low turnout in highly educated places like Mumbai one’s heart goes out to those ill fated people who choose politics as a career and chose to make money the other way round (Hell some even give away their money just for a chair ). Even the glitz and glamour of Bollywood wasn’t able to bring in voters to see their favourite stars in real life. I imagined that hundreds and thousands would throng the voting centers to be the next one in line after Shahrukh Khan or Bipasha Basu. Seems like Youngistaan’s a bit too lazy even for that. So looks like Youngistaan just rocks in the parties at night and when it comes to the real stuff the heat takes away all the dance moves.
The electorate is not the only one to be blamed for such for this entire fiasco; the politicians too come in to stake their claim for the blame. We have perpetrators who though are young and energetic but still assume the policies of their former/elderly colleagues to divide the country along religious lines. They have their hate speeches ready and loaded to the full to go out and give its entire blast to a group of people who can be indoctrinated to think on those lines very very easily. Such divisive politics is the root cause of all the troubles ailing our 60 odd year old vibrant and young democracy.
But lose not all hopes my friends, coz there still is a silver lining in this dangerously dark and damp cloud of ours. We still have the likes of Rahul Gandhi who have their kurtas clean and white, void of any dirt unlike many of our other MP’S. But maybe that’s just because he uses a better detergent than all the others. Maybe not, but that’s not our main focus right now. We may have most of our young MP’s from political backgrounds with great family legacies behind them, but all we need to do is to give them a chance and that can only come when we go out and do our bit for them.
Call me a cynic but “Yeh hai youngistaan meri jaan”.
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